Every year in the spring, college basketball fans around the world take their chances when filling out a March Madness bracket. The NCAA Tournament boasts a field of 68 squads from conferences across the country, highlighted by the nation’s best players, coaches, and college basketball teams.
March Madness is one of the most unpredictable events in sports filled with huge upsets, heartbreaks, and Cinderella stories.
Yet, whether you’re a college basketball fan or not, you’ve probably filled out a bracket or two.
However, the chances of guessing a perfect bracket are next to impossible, no matter how many brackets fans fill out.
In fact, the chances of guessing all the teams right are 1 in 120.2 billion, according to NCAA.com.
There’s never been a perfect bracket on record. In 2023, brackets busted in record time for ESPN’s Bracket Challenge following No. 1-seed Purdue’s loss versus No. 16-seed Farleigh Dickinson.
Filling out a perfect bracket is so unlikely that moguls like Warren Buffet have offered $1 billion to any person who can achieve a perfect bracket.
Let’s take a look at a few shocking things that are more likely to happen than filling out a perfect March Madness bracket.
It’s More Likely To Become President of the US than Scoring a Perfect Bracket
In the history of March Madness, a perfect bracket has never been completed. It seems mathematically impossible, it doesn’t matter what algorithm is used.
Every bracket that’s filled has only a 1 in 120.2 billion chance of winning — and that’s if you know something about basketball. If you just guess or flip a coin, the odds jump to 1 in 9.223 quintillion.
While March Madness contests award the bracket that is most correct, those brackets still aren’t close to being perfect.
In fact, college basketball fans have a higher chance of becoming the US President than guessing a perfect bracket. The chances of becoming the US President is 1 in 209 million, which is 574 times more likely than any fans filling out a bracket even with algorithms and huge basketball knowledge.
In fact, it’s more likely to win the lottery twice than it is to score a perfect bracket. The chances of winning the lottery twice is only 1 in 2.5 billion. That means you are 47 times more likely to win the lottery twice than fill out a perfect March Madness bracket in your lifetime.
Other unlikely feats that are more likely than a perfect March Madness bracket include: having sextuplets, being struck by lightning twice, and becoming a billionaire.
Check out other odds that are more likely to happen than completing a perfect bracket.
- Having Sextuplets — 1 in 3.9 billion pregnancies
- Becoming the President of the United States — 1 in 209 million
- Meeting your doppelganger — 1 in a billion
- Chances of winning the lottery twice — 1 in 2.5 billion
- Winning the top prize in Mcdonald’s Monopoly — 1 in 451 million
- Odds of a high school senior basketball player making the NBA — 1 in 3,333
- Odds of becoming a billionaire in the USA — 1 in 578,508
- Being struck by lightning twice in your lifetime — 1 in 9 million